State budgets, once flush with cash from COVID-19 federal aid, are returning to a more normal equilibrium. According to the recently released National Association of State Budget Officers’ (NASBO) Spring 2024 Fiscal Survey of States, budget proposals in 2025 represent a “gradual return to a more stable, ‘normal’ budget environment in which new money is limited, revenue collections perform close to states’ forecasts and rainy-day funds in most states are on track to record modest growth.”
The report found that overall, states are in a “sound fiscal position,” with steady and stable revenue projections alongside robust rainy-day funds. NASBO’s report detailed that the data in their spring survey “show slowing revenue and expenditure growth,” which is expected to continue, in addition to “more variation in fiscal conditions across states.” This report attributes that variation to “differences in tax structures, their most prevalent industries, demographic factors, spending and tax policy decisions, timing of one-time expenditures and revenues,” in addition to other factors. The report concluded that states are in “sound fiscal position with stable revenue outlooks and rainy-day funds at or near all-time highs.”
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