In Virginia, the governor’s race features Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. Representative and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officer, facing off against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger held a comfortable polling lead over the summer, but the race has tightened following a controversy involving Democratic Attorney General candidate Jay Jones. Leaked text messages revealed Jones called for violence against then-Speaker Todd Gilbert and his children, and Spanberger’s refusal to call for Jones to exit the race has become a focal point of Republican attacks. The Sears campaign has capitalized on the issue through aggressive digital and television advertising. Despite the controversy, Spanberger maintains a lead in recent polling, with an Oct. 19-20 Quantus Insights poll showing her ahead 51%-56% and an Oct. 16 Trafalgar Group poll placing her three points ahead of Sears, 48%-45%. The race has drawn national attention, with an endorsement from former President Barack Obama for Spanberger and President Donald Trump expressing his support for Sears, and millions in outside spending from both the Democratic and Republican Governors Associations.

In New Jersey, the gubernatorial contest has narrowed as anticipated. Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman and businessman who nearly defeated Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in the 2021 governor’s race. Ciattarelli’s campaign has gained traction amid voter concerns over rising energy costs and broader affordability issues. A resurfaced 1992 cheating scandal at the U.S. Naval Academy has also drawn attention, revealing that Sherrill was disciplined for failing to report classmates involved and was barred from walking at her graduation. While the controversy has sparked debate, Sherrill continues to lead in the polls, with an Oct. 27 Rutgers-Eagleton survey showing a 5-point advantage for the Democrat (50%-45%) and an Oct. 17 Fairleigh Dickinson placing her 7 points ahead (52%-45%). Both candidates reached the public-financing threshold, but outside groups have poured millions of dollars into the race as it heads into the final stretch.