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Economic Trends

MDM Forecast: September Update

September brought another modest upgrade to the industry’s 2026 revenue outlook, but broader softening in 2027 projections. Most sectors saw next year’s forecasts trimmed, with an Oil & Gas upgrade cushioning the overall reduction. Get your much more valuable sector-specific revenue forecasts here.

By Mike Hockett

September 15, 2026

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The latest monthly MDM Forecast delivered a second straight relatively quiet update to the industry’s overall 2026 revenue outlook, while revisions for 2027 turned more broadly negative.

Our 2026 U.S. wholesale distribution revenue forecast ticked up 10 basis points from August to 12.4%, following a 20-bp increase a month earlier. Meanwhile, the 2027 outlook slipped 10 bps to 4.2%. Those modest headline adjustments contrasted with a more noticeable shift underneath: Most sectors received lower forecasts for next year, partially offset by a sizable improvement in the Oil & Gas outlook.

July U.S.…

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