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Economic Trends

MDM Forecast: August Update

After five straight considerable upward revisions to the industry’s 2026 revenue outlook, our latest Forecast was comparatively quiet at the top line. Oil & Gas gave back some of its recent surge, but broad upgrades elsewhere kept the overall forecast moving slightly higher. Get your much more valuable sector-specific revenue forecasts here.

August 12, 2026

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The latest monthly MDM Forecast reflected a much more muted change to the industry’s overall revenue outlook after several months of substantial upward revisions.

Our 2026 U.S. wholesale distribution revenue forecast ticked up just 20 basis points from July to 12.3%, while the 2027 outlook increased 30 bps to 4.3%. The modest 2026 uptick followed much larger revisions of +190 in July and +90 in June.

That relative stability at the top line masked plenty of movement underneath. Most notably, the 2026 forecast for Oil & Gas Products — which had been the biggest driver of the broader forecast’s…

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