Economic Trends

U.S. Factory Orders Fell in October on Weak Aircraft, but Core Goods Rise

We break down the latest key figures out of the Census Bureau’s October report that was delayed by the government shutdown.

January 7, 2026

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New orders for American-made goods fell by 1.3% during October, according to figures published Jan. 7 by the Census Bureau.

Following increases of 1.3% and 0.2% in August and September, overall October orders totaled $604.8 billion. The month-to-month decrease was primarily impacted by declines in transportation and equipment — down 6.4% to $103.9 billion, with the biggest drivers being nondefense aircraft (-20%), electrical equipment, appliances and components (-1.6%) and primary metals (-0.9%). On the other end, orders were higher for machinery (0.7%), fabricated metal products (0.6%) and computers and electronic products (0.9%).

October U.S. manufactured goods orders: Month-over-Month


Economists expected a 1.2% factory orders decline.

Excluding non-defense capital goods, the Bureau reported that new orders (of core capital goods) increased 0.5% during October month-to-month.

On a year-over-year basis, overall October orders increased 3.3%.

Monthly shipments of overall factory goods ticked up 0.1% in October after two straight decreases. Unfilled orders increased 0.2% and the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio moved down to 6.92 from 6.98 in September. October inventories were virtually unchanged after a 0.1% September decrease and the inventories-to-shipments ratio of 1.56 likewise was flat.

The October report was delayed by the 43-day government shutdown that spanned Oct. 1-Nov. 13. It came two days after the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly Purchasing Managers Index showed accelerated contraction for a third straight month to its lowest reading since October 2024.

Durable Goods

New orders for U.S. durable goods fell 2.2% during October following a 0.6% September increase.

October U.S. manufactured durable goods orders: Month-over-Month

Shipments of durable goods — up 10 of the last 11 months — increased 0.6% during October following a 0.1% September increase. Transportation equipment led the increase with a 1.4% gain. Unfilled orders — up 15 of the last 16 months — increased 0.2% after a 0.8% September gain. Inventories increased 0.2% in October after a 0.1% September decrease. Machinery — up seven of the last eight months — led the increase at +0.3%.

Here’s how the seasonally-adjusted value of manufacturers’ orders changed during October for certain durable goods categories:

  • Electrical equipment, appliances & components: 0.0% (+0.5% in Sept.)
    • Electrical equipment: +0.8% (+2.5% in Sept.)
  • Fabricated metal products: +0.4% (+0.2% in Sept.)
  • Farm machinery: +5.1% (-0.2% in Sept.)
  • Industrial machinery: +7.2% (+4.3% in Sept.)
  • Metalworking machinery: +0.7% (0.0% in Sept.)
  • Mining, oilfield & gas field machinery: -4.2% (+0.2% in Sept.)
  • Construction machinery: -2.5% (+6.0% in Sept.)
  • HVACR equipment: -2.3% (+1.2% in Sept.)
  • Turbines, generators & other power transmission equipment: +4.6% (+2.0% in Sept.)
  • Material handling equipment: -3.2% (+1.2% in Sept.)
  • Computers & electronics: +0.5% (-0.1% in Sept.)

Nondurable Goods

Orders for nondurable goods fell 0.4% during October. Shipments — down three straight months — likewise fell 0.4% after a 0.2% slide in September. Petroleum and coal products drove the decrease at -2.4%. Inventories — down three straight months — fell 0.2% following a 0.1% September dip. Petroleum and coal products led the inventories decrease at -0.8%.

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