Economic Trends
Conference Board: U.S. Economy Set to Slow in 2025 2nd Half
The Conference Board's June 2025 report shows continued decline in its Leading Economic Indicator, signaling slower growth ahead.
The Conference Board reported its June 2025 Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) — seen as an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and the direction the economic is heading, respectively — on July 21.
The June 2025 LEI for the U.S. fell by 0.3% to 98.8, following an upwardly revised unchanged May, according to the latest index published by The Conference Board. Economists polled by The Wall Steet Journal had forecasted a 0.2% decline in June for the LEI.
The LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025 at a faster rate of decline than the first half of 2024 (-1.3%).
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“In addition, the LEI’s six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month,” The Conference Board Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said in the report. “At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.”
The June 2025 CEI for the U.S. increase by 0.3% to 115.1, following both an unchanged May and April.
In the six-month period ending June 2025, the CEI grew by 0.8%, down from its 1.0% rate over the previous six months. The component indicators of the CEI — payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production — improved in June.
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In addition to reporting its LEI and CEI, the Conference Board posted the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. which remained unchanged at 119.6 in June, following a 0.4% increase in May. Over the six-month period, growth rate turned positive at 1.4%, which reversed a 0.8% decline over the previous six months (June to December 2024).
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
