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Economic Trends

MDM Forecast: 2024 Weakens, 2025 Holds Steady

This year is shaping up to have less than half the annual growth that was originally projected, illustrating longer-than-expected industrial softness.

October 15, 2024

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As we move into the last quarter of 2024, the MDM Forecast is poised to narrow, with smaller month-to-month fluctuations expected down the stretch. That being said, distributors won’t be happy to see a further downward revision to our outlook for 2024 compared to a month ago. Updated with the U.S. Census Bureau’s Oct. 9 wholesale trade report release, our outlook for U.S. wholesale distribution revenue now calls for 2024 revenue to increase 1.7% annually compared with 2023 — down 0.4 percentage points from September.  That’s down substantially from the 3.6% forecast we had in January, but…

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